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Will coronavirus outbreak paralyze global economy? Updated: 2020-02-18 13:23:43 KST

China has set an ambitious 6 percent GDP growth target for 2020, but the coronavirus will make it hard to reach that goal.
The virus is expected to have a bigger impact than the SARS outbreak in 2003 which killed 800 people worldwide and shaved almost one percent off China's growth.

"When compared with the SARS crisis, the economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak will be sharper and deeper. China's economy has grown 4 times bigger since then, making up almost 18 percent of the global economy."

And it's not just China's problem.
China has grown faster than any major economy to become the world's second biggest by GDP.
And as China is a key part of a range of global supply chains, the outbreak will have knock-on effects worldwide with those countries more reliant on China feeling even more of an impact.
The world's biggest smartphone chip maker Qualcomm cautioned that the outbreak was causing significant uncertainty over demand for smartphones as well as the supplies needed to produce them.
The travel and tourism industry is also among the most vulnerable.
Nearly 6 million people from China visited South Korea last year, but data shows that the country could lose a large number of those tourists.
Moody's has lowered Seoul's GDP growth forecast once again from 2.1 to 1.9 percent.
Singapore's trade ministry on Monday also cut its GDP forecast for this year due to the outbreak.
But with major businesses across China gradually resuming operation, some believe in a V-shaped impact like the SARS crisis.

"In other words, sharp decline in economic activities in China, followed by a rapid recovery and the total impact on China relatively contained. Therefore, impact on the world economy also contained."

A rebound after a short, sharp economic shock is possible under certain circumstances.

"Major businesses and factories across China need to resume operation under the Chinese government's systematic economic policies and containment measures.
Most importantly, the spread of the virus needs to stop."

"The IMF chief has also warned that the coronavirus outbreak could drag down the global economy.
And with uncertainties over the situation in China, G20 finance ministers and central bankers will gather in Saudi Arabia this week to discuss the possible cost of the outbreak.
Kim Dami, Arirang News."
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